Throughout the planet’s history, ocean levels and temperatures have had a fairly straightforward relationship: when the earth cools down, ocean levels drop; when it heats up, they rise. The basics of this dynamic are pretty simple. When the climate is warm, land-based ice melts, and much of that water winds up in the oceans. The water in the oceans also occupies more volume, since water expands when it heats up. Cooling the climate reverses both of these processes.
Consistent with the rise registered in global temperatures, various measurements have shown that the oceans have been rising for at least the last century. Yet the steady rise that has been observed covers a fairly complex system, with seasonal variability and changes in the relative contributions of different factors. If we’re to provide accurate forecasts of how the ocean levels might respond to further changes in the climate, it will be essential that we understand this complexity. A panel at February’s meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science tried to tackle the issue.
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