The September 11 attacks caused a general reassessment of the major threats to the United States, and the general conclusion was that the primary nuclear risk has shifted from major nations to rogue states and terrorist cells. The splintered and hardline nature of these organizations eliminates both diplomacy and brinksmanship as effective deterrents. Further, rogue states and terrorist cells are most likely to deliver nuclear payloads by smuggling them into the country, so the US military’s missile- and laser-based defense systems are effectively useless against these threats.

Today’s primary defense is centered on preventing nuclear materials from entering the US. According to US Customs and Border Patrol, 98 percent of the shipping containers entering US maritime ports, 96 percent of trucks at Northern land border crossings, and 100 percent of those at Southern border crossings are scanned for nuclear materials using radiation portal monitors (RPMs). Congress recently asked the the National Academies of Sciences to review the efforts of the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (part of the Department of Homeland Security) in the area of upgrading the nation’s RPMs, and the NAS’ interim findings were, well, unflattering.

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